Welcome back, you gambling degenerates! Ya boy the Lurkasaurus is back to give his indispensible opinion on the week’s upcoming football games (capslock of justice) FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. (That should keep the lawyers and leg-breakers at bay.) So, IF you were to spend coin of the realm on a football wager, I’d recommend you do it this way:

nfl week 1 2014Packers at Seahawks (-5) If you like an upset, do not look here. Seattle is bringing everyone back from the team that put an epic beatdown on the most prolific offense the NFL had ever seen in last year’s Super Bowl…and it sez so right here that they STILL feel disrespected. Green Bay is good…but good enough to beat the defending champs in the loudest stadium known to man? Take the Seahawks and give the points. SEAHAWKS

Vikings (+6.5) at Rams – The Rams will keep it close, because their defense is that good. Unfortunately, their offense was not all that good to begin with, and now they will have to soldier on without Sam Bradford. This is not to say that the Vikings are much better under center, but Matt Cassell is better than a corpse, and they still have Adrian Peterson to give the ball to on a regular basis. VIKINGS

Saints (-2.5) at Falcons – First team to 48 wins. There will be virtually no defense played in this game. That said, the Saints still have a better QB and better weapons than the Falcons, especially in rookie burner Brandin Cooks. SAINTS

Bengals (+1) at Ravens – The Ravens will be without Ray Rice for this game, putting everything on the dubious shoulders of Joe Flacco (seriously, the only difference between Flacco and Jay Cutler is the Super Bowl ring). Plus, it would not surprise me to watch this Ravens squad age in dog years while we watch. The Bengals, meanwhile, will feature not only the best receiver in the AFC in A.J. Green, but watch for a break-out, Matt Forte-esque turn by RB Giovani Bernard. BENGALS

Titans at Chiefs (-4.5) – Jake Locker is still the Titans QB. That’s pretty much everything you need to know right there. CHIEFS

Bills at Bears (-7) – This line is at 7 and it might go higher than that. Buffalo is awful, with the exception of Sammy Watkins. Watkins, a rookie, is trending toward spectacular, but his QB is still apt to line up behind left guard. Worse, there is not a single person on the Bills defense that can stop the Bears from turning this into a track meet. BEARS

WASHINGTON at Texans (-1.5) – WASHINGTON comes in with a fairly potent offense…except that they are facing perhaps the best defense in the NFL that is not playing in Seattle. It has been a long time since the NFL has seen a defensive line with as many great players as the Texans have…and I’m talking about since the ’85 Bears (Dent and Hampton), or the ’76 Steelers (Green and Greenwood), or the Fearsome Foursome Rams of Merlin Olsen and Deacon Jones. Yes, J.J. Watt and Jadaveon Clowney are THAT good. Both will demand a double-team that the offense can’t possibly provide, which means that RGIII is going to spend the majority of his time running for his life…and failing. TEXANS

Raiders at Jets (-4.5) – The Raiders are a hot mess. Defensively, they are still sound, but their offense must be conducted by Moe, Larry, and Curley. Who brings in Maurice Jones-Drew when you already have Darren McFadden? I don’t care if McFadden has the injury bug, you do NOT bring in another Alpha male. You get him a backup, keep his confidence up , and ride. With MJD, they have an uncomfortable time-share situation that will work to no one’s advantage. Meanwhile, the Jets will actually show up with some new toys on offense…and there is also the fact that Geno Smith will NEVER be as bad as the San-Chize was. Plus, they are at home. JETS

Jaguars at Eagles (-11) – Normally, I would be scared of this number. Terrified, even. But the Jaguars are coming into this game stubbornly insisting on starting Chad Henne (!!) over Blake Bortles, and Bortles is the only thing that has given their offense a pulse in the preseason. By the time they realize their mistake, Nick Foles, Shady McCoy, and Darren Sproles will have run the score up over 40, and Bortles won’t be able to overcome that number in the fourth. EAGLES

Browns at Steelers (-7) – If this game were in Cleveland, the shouts for Johnny Football would begin right after Brian Hoyer throws a pick-6 in the first offensive series of the game. Since it’s in Pittsburgh, the Steeler faithful will be happy to let Hoyer cough up the job he “won.” Not having Josh Gordon is a huge blow to the Browns, and if Hoyer were the kind of playmaker that could win this game on the road, they would not have drafted Manziel. I normally hate betting sevens, but the Steelers crush the junior varsity in this one. STEELERS

Patriots (-4.5) at Dolphins – Lookit. The Patriots were winning this game, period. It doesn’t matter if they get Rob Gronkowski back or not (it sez so right here that he plays…and gets hurt). It doesn’t matter if Shane Vereen fumbles AGAIN. Tom Brady is still the QB. Bill Belichick is still the head coach. The Dolphins offense is still “meh.” Plus, the Pats can turn to rookie burner James White in the backfield if Vereen fails Darth Hoodie for the last time. PATRIOTS

49ers (-5.5) at Cowboys – There is nothing wrong with Dallas’ offense in the regular season, and there won’t be anything wrong with it this season. The problem is that they will be facing a 49ers team that is still looking up in the standings at their hated rivals, the Seattle Seahawks (and, as the saying goes, unless you’re the lead dog, the scenery never changes). The Niners do not want the Super Bowl; they want to beat the Seahawks, and Dallas is just in the way. For fantasy purposes, Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and DeMarco Murray will be just fine…but the Niners will drop the hammer on them. NINERS

Panthers at Buccaneers (-1) – A LOT had to go right for the Panthers last season, which means that the Panthers get to meet my old friend “Regression To The Mean” this season. They will need Cam Newton to be Tom Brady (or even Russell Wilson) but he won’t be, which means their offense will likely only offend. Josh McCown is not a great QB, but he pays attention and he generally puts the ball into his own team’s hands…plus, it doesn’t hurt to have Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin on your offense. BUCCS

Colts at Broncos (-7.5) – I would have told you to take the Colts and take the points…except that I really think we are going to see the Evil Manning that Bill Simmons has predicted and dreaded. Manning is not just in mid-season form, he’s pissed about losing last season’s Super Bowl. How angry is he? Angry enough to drop an F-bomb on a defender in a preseason game…and when he got fined, did he make a typically-classy Manning apology for failing to be professional and letting his team down and putting his defense in a bad position? Nope. Quote: “I accept it. Money well spent.” (capslock of justice) MONEY WELL SPENT?! When did Peyton Manning turn heel on us? My goodness, for the majority of his career, Catholic priests used a picture of Manning drinking a glass of milk to exorcise demons! Now he’s cursing out defenders in preseason games? I’m kinda scared, actually…BRONCOS

Giants vs. Lions (-4.5) – The Giants will be better than they were last season because it would almost be impossible for them to be worse. The Lions will still have Calvin Johnson and a better offense, and the game is still in Detroit because apparently Syria was booked. LIONS

Chargers (+3) at Cardinals – It has only taken me this long to figure it out, but here it is: Philip Rivers is the AFC version of Tony Romo. He’ll be great during the regular season…but once the calendar flips over to January, he’ll turn into Caleb Hanie. The Cardinals are still running Carson Palmer’s corpse out to play quarterback, which means that if Larry Fitzgerald does catch any passes, it will be because he was bitten by a radioactive spider while visiting OsCorp. CHARGERS

…aaaaaand I’m OUT like Josh Gordon…